Category archives for: Economy

China / Germany … trading places

China / Germany … trading places

Many people assume either the United States or China is the world’s largest exporter of “stuff” – that was certainly my assumption until I really dug into the numbers. However – until now – that belief has been incorrect; the actual leader for quite a few years has / had been Germany.

Turning bolts, Germans [...]

Viva Brasilia … as Bovespa approaches all time high

Viva Brasilia … as Bovespa approaches all time high

Quite a remarkable performance by the Brazilian Bovespa Index. After a 83% gain in 2009, it has recaptured the 70,000 level and is only 4.5% off of its all time high of 73,517. This despite efforts to keep the flood of US pesos from over heating its markets and economy.
Much like a stock that returns [...]

Assessing the renminbi’s undervaluation

Assessing the renminbi’s undervaluation

Must China let its exchange rate appreciate to reduce global imbalances?  This column says the appropriate yardstick to measure currency undervaluation is based on the Balassa-Samuelson effect. That measure says the renminbi is undervalued by only 12%. A gradual renminbi appreciation will be sustained only if Chinese corporate and public savings [...]

Targetting China : Sector ETFs

Targetting China : Sector ETFs

As ETFs have grown from a closet industry to a mainstream investing option, funds offering exposure to nearly every corner of the globe have popped up.
Although the abundance of funds has brought access to dozens of equity markets within reach, the vast majority of international ETFs provide fairly shallow exposure to [...]

Brazilian economy back on track

Brazilian economy back on track

Brazil’s economy grew at an annualised rate of eight percent in the third quarter and the result for the final three months of the year will be roughly equivalent, according to Finance Minister Guido Mantega.
After growing 1.9% in the second quarter, real gross domestic product growth in the third quarter relative to [...]

Russian service & manufacturing sectors suffer in November

Russian service & manufacturing sectors suffer in November

As doubts grow that in the post Dubai word Russia’s central bank will be able to sustain a great deal of momentum in its ongoing programme of interest rate reductions, we learn this week that the pace of expansion in Russia’s economy slowed back in November, following two months of steady advance [...]

India’s 7.9% economic surprise

India’s 7.9% economic surprise

Notwithstanding all the issues with using GDP as the main signal of economic prosperity … it is the end all, be all for government officials and market watchers.
India just checked in with an impressive 7.9%, which might mean game over for “extraordinary” stimulus. No such problems domestically. Rather than focusing on the [...]

Rouble carry trade running without brakes ?

Rouble carry trade running without brakes ?

“Cutting rates by 50 basis points here and there is not going really diminish the appeal of the ruble,” said Manik Narain, an emerging markets strategist at Standard Chartered Bank Plc in London.
“In terms of nominal interest rates Russia (at 9% as of 24 November) is still offering the highest yields in [...]

A clean sweep for Russian bureaucracy ?

A clean sweep for Russian bureaucracy ?

The official press has been aflutter with the news that Russian President Dmitry Medvedev used his ‘State of the State’ speech to call for sweeping economic reforms.
The AFP went so far as to report that Medvedev’s plans would target a key legacy of his Kremlin predecessor, Vladimir Putin.
It implies that under Putin’s direction, a [...]

India needs new Green Revolution

India needs new Green Revolution

Despite its economic successes, India leads the world in hunger.
According to the 2008 Global Hunger Index, which is calculated by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), India has over 200 million people who are food insecure – in other words, who are not sure where their next meal is coming from.
To put that into [...]

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